AGEB

As forecast by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen) on the basis of current calculations for the first half of the year, energy consumption in Germany is likely to decline by around 7 % this year and could, in unfavourable conditions, even fall by up to 12 % (Figure 1). If the country enjoys a fast and uninterrupted recovery from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the Working Group on Energy Balances is anticipating a single-digit percentage drop in consumption for the year as a whole. However, if the country enters into another period of lockdown, a double-digit reduction in consumption over the previous year is certainly possible.

Standing at 5,961 PJ or 203.5 Mtce after the first six months of the year, total energy consumption is 8.8 % below the same period in the previous year. The macroeconomic effects of the coronavirus pandemic are primarily responsible for the downward trend in consumption. The rate of change in terms of energy consumption was significantly higher than the drop in overall macroeconomic performance, which came in at 6.6 %. Even the weather conditions, which were relatively mild compared to the previous year, served to slow consumption slightly.

The decline in energy consumption is affecting all fossil fuels. However, almost two thirds of the decline in consumption of 575 PJ or 19.6 5 Mtce could be attributed to coal, meaning that the Working Group on Energy Balances is anticipating a pronounced drop in energy-related CO₂ emissions of more than 13 % over 2019 for the first half of the year. In terms of energy-related CO₂ emissions, the Working Group on Energy Balances is anticipating a decrease in the range from 10 % to 17 % for the year as a whole.

Mineral oil consumption decreased by a total of 6.7 % in the first half of 2020. Indeed, all fuels suffered severe declines in terms of both, sales and consumption. Petrol fuels fell by 13.5 %, while diesel dropped by 8.6 %. The drastic reduction in air traffic led to a 46 % reduction in sales of aviation fuel. Only heating oil actually enjoyed an increase in sales, rising by around 28 %. Consumers evidently used the low prices to stock up ready for the cold season.

Natural gas consumption fell by a total of 4.6 % as a result of the milder weather in the first two months of the year and the slightly reduced use of natural gas in various industrial sectors. The power station sector, on the other hand, actually recorded increased sales.

Consumption of coal declined by just under 25 % in the first half of 2020. In terms of coal usage for generating power and heat at power stations, the drop was almost 30 %. This development can primarily be attributed to the significantly higher amount of electricity supplied by wind power and photovoltaic systems, as well as greater use of natural gas for power generation. The use of coke and coal in the steel industry declined by around 19 % due to the economic situation.

In the first six months of 2020, consumption of lignite fell by more than 35.5 %. This significant drop has three main causes: the dramatic increase in electricity production from renewable energies, the transitioning of further lignite power generation blocks to standby mode for emergency reserve power and – particularly in the second quarter – the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on both, the national and European electricity market.

Due to the planned shutdown of the Philippsburg power station at the end of 2019, nuclear energy saw a decrease in electricity production of approximately 13 %.

By contrast, the contribution of renewable energies to total energy consumption rose by 3 % overall in the first half of 2020. Wind and solar power each enjoyed an increase of 10 % thanks to favourable weather conditions. Biomass saw a decrease of 1 %, while hydroelectric power stations supplied 1 % more electricity.

Low power consumption (also in neighbouring countries), as well as historically low natural gas prices led to significant shifts in the European electricity generation structure. Germany’s negative electricity exchange balance with its neighbouring states was therefore significantly lower in the first half of 2020 than in the first six months of the previous year. Not only did the amount of electricity flowing into Germany from other countries increase significantly, exports from Germany to neighbouring states also declined. (AGEB/Si.)

In the first three months of this year, energy consumption in Germany was almost 7 % below the comparable value from the previous year (Figure 1).

According to preliminary calculations from the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), consumption in the first quarter fell by 6.8 % to 3,457 PJ or 117.9 Mtce. The lower energy consumption due to the economic situation, especially in the energy-intensive industries, the warmer weather conditions in the first two months of the year, and the initial effects of the coronavirus pandemic were responsible for the decrease in consumption. This year’s leap day, by contrast, boosted consumption. With the exception of renewables, all energy sources were affected by the decline in consumption, with coal recording an especially drastic decrease. As the AG Energiebilanzen also calculated, energy consumption would only have decreased by 6.4 % without the impact of the mild weather. The AG Energiebilanzen is also expecting a decrease in energy-related CO₂ emissions of almost 11 %.

The consumption of mineral oil fell by 3.2 %. While petrol experienced only a slight drop in sales compared to the previous year, the decrease for diesel fuel was 3.4 %. Sales of heating oil were 5.7 % higher than the same period of the previous year. This growth may have been caused by consumers stocking up due to the sharp drop in prices. Petroleum experienced a 10.5 % decline due to the economic situation.

Natural gas consumption reduced by 5.5 % in total due to the mild weather in the first two months of the year and the slightly reduced use of natural gas in electricity production.

The consumption of coal fell by around 22 % in the first quarter of 2020. The use of coal in power stations recorded a decline of a good third. This development is primarily due to the significantly increased supply of electricity from wind turbines and photovoltaic installations. The use of coke and coal in the steel industry declined by almost 7 %.

In the first three months of 2020, the consumption of lignite fell by more than 30 %. This significant drop has three main causes: The dramatically increased electricity production from renewable energy, the transfer of further lignite power plant blocks to standby mode for emergency reserve power, and the initial effects of the coronavirus pandemic on electricity consumption.

Due to the planned shutdown of the Philippsburg power station at the end of 2019, nuclear energy saw an almost 17 % decrease in electricity production.

By contrast, renewable energies’ contribution to overall energy consumption in the first quarter of 2020 rose by 6 % overall. Wind power recorded an extraordinary increase of 22 % and solar energy grew by 10 %. Biomass saw a decrease of 1 %. Hydroelectric power stations supplied 3 % less electricity.

The electricity exchange balance saw a reduction in electricity flows abroad and an increase in imports, causing a drop in the negative exchange balance, which had significantly increased over recent years. (AGEB/Si.)

The energy demand for heating and lighting in Germany has decreased in the last ten years (Figure 1). According the current calculations by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), the heating demand in 2018 was 17 % lower than in 2008. A significant proportion of this change is due to temperature differences between the two years. After compensating for temperature, the decrease is at 2 %. The savings for lighting amounted to 14 %. The figures for domestic hot water (6 %) and refrigeration (30 %) rose however. Energy consumption for transport increased by nearly 5 %; information and communication technology required 1.6 % more energy. The AG Energiebilanzen reports that with 8,996 PJ, the demand for final energy in Germany decreased by nearly 2 % overall between 2008 and 2018 as a result of the opposing developments.

More than 53 % of the total final energy consumption in Germany is attributable to heating (Figure 2). The reduction in spatial heating demand was opposed by an increase in demand for process heat in industry and commerce. The available data show that the energy efficiency has significantly increased in both areas. However, the positive economic development of the past years has led to an overcompensation of energy savings for process heat. With roughly 39 %, motoring energy forms the second largest share of the final energy consumption. Domestic hot water, refrigeration, lighting and information and communication technology made up only around 13 % of the total final energy consumption in 2018.

 

Heating in Germany is mainly provided through gas. With a share of nearly 45 %, this heat source is far more common than mineral oil (14.9 %), renewable energies (11.6 %) as well as coal (9.4 %), electricity (9.3 %) and district heating (8.4 %). In refrigeration and air conditioning, electricity dominates with a share of nearly 98 %. Mechanical energy (transport and stationary engines/motors) is mainly generated from mineral oil (75.4 %) and electricity (20.5 %). Information and communication technology as well as lighting are also powered nearly entirely by electricity.

In terms of application areas for final energy, transport currently holds a share of 30 % with 2,705 PJ overall. Mineral oil continues to dominate consumption in this area with a share of 94 %. Renewable fuels currently take up 4.2 %, while electricity reaches 1.6 % and gas 0.2 %.

The industrial final energy consumption is only slightly below the transport sector with 2,651 PJ. Both gas (35.6 %) and electricity (30.8 %) make up high shares of the industrial final energy consumption. Renewable energies make up only 4.3 %.

Private households consumed 25.5 % or 2,291 PJ of the total final energy in 2018. Here, renewable energies already make up 14.0 %, but this is still significantly lower than mineral oil (19.4 %), gas (37.6 %) and electricity (20.3 %). The smallest application for final energy is the commerce, trade and services sector with 15.0 % of the total energy consumption. This sector uses primarily electricity (38.7 %) as well as oil (21.1 %) and gas (27.5 %).

The energy used by industry, transport, private households and the commerce, trade and services sector together makes up the final energy consumption, which forms part of the energy balance for Germany regularly created by the AG Energiebilanzen. However, the final energy consumption is not actually the last stage of energy use. End consumers (private households, industry, commerce, trade and services, and transport) convert the supplied energy into useful energy or energy services with different techniques.

Since 2014, the AG Energiebilanzen has created usage balances which provide meaningful data for this last stage of conversion on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The creation of these balances is aided by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and (until 2017) the Institute for Energy Economy and Application Technology at the Technical University of Munich.
(AGEB/Si.)

Energy consumption in Germany will fall again this year. Based on the current figures for energy consumption in the first nine months, the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), Berlin and Bergheim, expects a decline in energy consumption in Germany of a good 2 % to roughly 12,810 PJ (437 M t of coal) for the entire year (Figure 1). As the consumption of coal was rapidly declining and renewable energies continue to increase, the AG Energiebilanzen assumes a noticeable decline in CO₂ emissions.

According to preliminary calculations by the AG Energiebilanzen, energy consumption in Germany dropped by 2.3 % to 9,258 PJ or 315.9 M t of coal in the first nine months. The AG Energiebilanzen attributes the lower consumption to improvements in energy efficiency, substitution in the energy mix, the decline in energy consumption due to the economic situation in the energy-intensive industry sectors, as well as the continuing structural transformation. The slightly cooler weather conditions, the increase in the population, as well as slightly growing economic output, pushed up consumption. Overall, the factors contributing to higher consumption were significantly below those leading to lower consumption. Adjusted for the impact of weather conditions, the decline is expected to be a good 3 % according to calculations by the AG Energiebilanzen.

During the first nine months of this year, mineral oil consumption was a total of 1.9 % above that of the previous year‘s figure. While the consumption of diesel and petrol remained at the level of the previous year, there was an increase in aviation fuel of 4 % and the use of light heating oils saw a rise of around 25 %. In contrast, the supplies of petroleum to the chemicals industry reduced by around 11 % due to the economic situation.

Gas consumption rose by 3.9 %. Apart from the high heating requirements in the cooler spring months, the increased use of gas in power plants also contributed to this increase.

Coal consumption registered substantial falls and in the first nine months decreased by more than 18 % overall compared to the same period last year. In the power and heat generation sector there were declines of over 30 %, as more electricity was generated from renewable energies and gas. The steel industry reduced its use by a good 3 %.

The consumption of lignite was also in the minus in the first nine months and reduced by 21.7 %. The supplies to the lignite-fired power stations also fell considerably due to the safety preparedness of other power plant blocks, the reduced handling in the surface mine, a higher number of power plant upgrades compared to the previous year, as well as the increase in electricity generation from renewable energies.

Compared with the previous year, nuclear energy saw a decrease of power production by a good 3 %. At the end of this year another nuclear power plant (Philippsburg) will be decommissioned.

Renewable energies increased their contribution to the overall energy consumption in the first nine months of the year by 4 %. Wind power increased its contribution by 17 %. For hydropower there was an increase of 8 %. Solar energy only increased slightly by 1 % and biomass remained at the level of the previous year. The percentage of renewable energies in the overall primary energy consumption increased to 14.8 %. (AGEB/Si.)

In Germany macroeconomic energy efficiency has improved significantly. In 2018 the development – adjusted for temperature and inventory effects – registered an increase of 3.1 % compared with the previous year. In order to produce goods and services worth 1,000 €, in Germany only 4.5 GJ of primary energy is used, according to provisional estimates by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), Berlin and Bergheim. This is an exemplary value and corresponds to an improvement of over 40 % compared with 1990.

In 2018 efficiency gains in electricity generation, as well as in other sectors of energy conversion, had a significant influence on the development of macro-economic energy efficiency. In the area of electricity generation modern power plants with high efficiency, the departure from nuclear energy and the expansion of renewable energies, ensure significant energy improvements. Energy use per generated kilowatt hour of electricity fell from 7.30 MJ to 7.18 MJ, whereby the efficiency in electricity generation improved by 1.6 %. The average efficiency of all electricity generation plants exceeded the 50 % mark for the first time in 2018. For power consumption the efficiency was up 2 % compared with the previous year. The reasons are a falling number of electricity-intensive economic sectors, technical improvements to machines and systems, as well as the stock of durable consumer goods. The per capita electricity consumption fell by 0.8 % to 7,174 kWh compared with the previous year.

The energy efficiency of private households deteriorated by 1.6 % in 2018 taking into effect the weather conditions. Based on the living space, the fuel usage for the heat supply increased 1.8 % and electricity consumption rose by 0.8 %. In the industry/trade/services sector energy efficiency improved in 2018 by 7.5 %, whereby the mild weather had a significant impact here. In industry energy efficiency improved by 0.6 % compared with 2017.

Since 1990 macroeconomic energy efficiency in Germany has improved by over 40 %. On average over the last 28 years the efficiency gain is now 1.9 %/a. Since 1990 energy use has fallen by 9.8 MJ/kWh to approximately 7.2 MJ/kWh in electricity generation. Since 1990 the average efficiency of all electricity production plants has increased from 36.6 % to currently more than 50 %. Since 1991 energy efficiency in private households has improved by just under 29 % (temperature adjusted). However, the long-term average of a good 1 %/a is significantly behind the efficiency gains of other consumption sectors and indicates there is still efficiency potential in this sector. Since 1991 the industry/trade/services sector improved its energy efficiency by almost 2.5 %/a on average. In the entire sector energy use has dropped by almost half since 1991 for every 1,000 € value added. In the long-term average the industry records efficiency gains of just under 1.3 %/a compared to the initial value in 1991. The transport sector made efficiency improvements of roughly 1.5 %/a in the long-term average.

For the adjusted cross-sector final energy consumption – based on the real gross domestic product – there is an improvement of energy intensity of 1.9 % for 2018. From 1990 to 2018 an improvement of on average 1.6 %/a can be observed for this indicator. This development is well below the objective of the federal government, which aims at an improvement of energy productivity of 2.1 %/a for the period up to 2050.

The AG Energiebilanzen regularly calculates current macroeconomic and sector-based statistics on the energy efficiency trend in Germany. The systematic monitoring of energy efficiency is an important contribution to the monitoring of the energy revolution and is done on the basis of methods which have been developed on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy. (AGEB/Si.)

Germany’s energy consumption in 2018 fell to its lowest level since the early 1970s. With a total volume of 12,963 PJ or 442.3 Mtce, consumption was 3.5 % below the previous year’s level (Figure 1). As outlined by Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (AG Energiebilanzen – Working Group on Energy Balances), Berlin/Germany, in its 2018 Annual Report published at the end of March, this development is due to significantly higher energy prices, the mild weather and a big increase in energy productivity. In contrast, the consumption-enhancing factors of economic development and population growth receded into the background. According to calculations by AG Energiebilanzen, energy consumption would have decreased by 2.4 % without the consumption-reducing impact of the mild weather.

When it comes to the development of consumption last year, one of the surprises was the sharp increase in macroeconomic energy productivity by 5.2 % (temperature-adjusted: + 4.0 %). This parameter for the efficient use of energy is calculated from the energy input per unit of economic performance. The long-term average value of this parameter is approximately 2 %.

The development of consumption, but also structural changes in the energy mix resulted in energy-related CO₂ emissions in Germany decreasing by about 34 Mt in 2018. This is a decline of 4.8 % compared to the previous year. Even when taking the temperature effect into account, the reduction is still significant at almost 4 % or about 27 Mt.

In 2018, mineral oil consumption in Germany decreased by a total of 5.0 % to 4,443 PJ (151.6 Mtce). Except for aviation fuels, all mineral oil products recorded a decline. Consumption of diesel fuel went down by 3.1 %, petrol recorded a decrease of 1.4 %. At 16 %, the decline in the sales of light fuel oil was exceptionally sharp. However, there are indications that consumers used up their own stocks first in light of the high prices, and that the actual consumption was higher than the sales in the trade sector. When it comes to aviation fuels, an increase of 2.3 % was recorded for consumption.

Natural gas consumption peaked at 3,071 PJ (104.8 Mtce) in 2018 and was therefore 1.6 % below the previous year’s value. The primary reason for this decline was the reduced use of natural gas for heating purposes because it was about 7.5 % warmer than in 2017 and 12.3 % milder than the long-term average. Towards the end of the year, the cutback in production in the chemical industry resulted in a declining demand for natural gas. In addition, less natural gas was used for power generation in 2018.

There was a sharp decline in the consumption of hard coal once again. Compared to 2017, consumption decreased by 11.2 % to 1,301 PJ (44.4 Mtce). It thus attained the lowest level in German post-war history. The use of coal for the generation of power and heat went down by 16 % to about 26 Mt. In 2018, almost 59 % of the hard coal volume in Germany was used for the generation of power and heat. The downward trend reflects the expansion of the use of renewable energy sources in power generation, which is increasingly replacing the electricity obtained from hard coal and led to a number of power station units being decommissioned in 2018. The use of hard coal in the steel industry decreased slightly by just under 2 % to 17.3 Mt in 2018. Industrial hard coal mining was discontinued in Germany at the end of 2018. In the future, Germany will satisfy its demand for hard coal and coke entirely through imports.

Lignite consumption peaked at 1,465 PJ (50.0 Mtce), meaning that consumption decreased for the sixth time in a row. The decline was 2.9 % due to the decreasing use of lignite for power generation. By 2020, the use of lignite for power generation will decrease by a total of 13 % compared to 2015 on account of the transfer of power stations to standby mode for backup purposes.

Nuclear energy recorded a slight decline of 0.4 %. All told, nuclear energy still contributed a share of 829 PJ (28.3 Mtce) to the energy balance in 2018.

Renewable energy benefited from the installation of additional capacity – specifically in photovoltaics – as well as from the extreme weather conditions experienced at times. The contribution made by renewable energy to total energy consumption increased by 1.1 % to 1,809 PJ (61.7 Mtce). The number of sunshine hours reached a record level, so the total use of solar energy increased by 16.5 %. Wind energy also experienced a record year. It increased its share in the energy balance by 5.6 %. In contrast, the extremely low level of precipitation caused hydropower (without pumped-storage reservoirs) to drop by almost one fifth. Biomass, whose share in the contribution of renewable energy is currently 53.6 %, recorded a decrease of 2 %, which was primarily due to the milder weather. Geothermal energy remained at the previous year’s level.

Renewable energy was able to expand its share in the energy mix for 2018. Biomass, solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, geothermal energy, and the biogenic share of waste accounted for a total of 14.0 % of the entire domestic energy consumption. The most important energy source continued to be mineral oil with a share of 34.3 %, followed by natural gas with 23.7 %. Hard coal accounted for a share of 10.0 % and lignite for 11.3 %. The contribution of nuclear energy accounted for 6.4 %.

Domestic energy production recorded a 2.8 % decline to 3,891 PJ (132.8 Mtce) in 2018. While renewable energy sources increased their contribution to domestic energy production by almost 1 %, all other energy sources recorded a decline. With a decrease of almost 30 %, the decline in domestic hard coal production, which was completely discontinued by the end of 2018, was particularly high. Domestic natural gas production decreased by 12.6 % and mineral oil accounted for a decline of around 7 %. Domestic lignite production went down by 2.9 %. Overall, energy production from domestic resources was able to cover 30 % of total consumption. Today, the most important domestic energy source is renewable energy with a proportion of 46.3 % (previous year: 44.6 %). This is followed by lignite at 38.4 % (previous year: 38.5 %). The shares of other energy sources are in the low single-digit range.

Germany has to meet around 70 % of its demand for energy through imports. Russia has become the most important supplier by far. In 2018, 36.3 % of German crude oil imports came from Russia. Together with the other states of the former Soviet Union (CIS), the share is actually almost 53 %. When it comes to hard coal, supplies from Russia account for a share of about 40 %. Due to the considerable increase in energy prices, the import bill for coal, natural gas and oil went up by approximately one fifth to almost 68 bn € in 2018 when compared to the previous year.

The detailed report on the development of primary energy consumption in 2018 is available at the AG Energie-bilanzen website: www.ag-energiebilanzen.de. (AG Energiebilanzen)/Si.)

Energy consumption in Germany reached 6,771 PJ or 230.9 mt ce by the middle of 2018 (Figure 1), constituting a solid 1 % decrease on the previous year. Following the first three months, growth amounted to more than 5 % on account of the cool weather conditions in February and March.

According to preliminary calculations by the German Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), the use of both natural gas and renewable energy sources increased, whereas the consumption of mineral oil and coal and lignite decreased. Were it not for the cool weather, the energy consumption calculated for the entire half year would have increased by approximately 1.5 %. According to AG Energiebilanzen estimations, the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy sources as well as the decline in oil and coal will have reduced energy-related CO₂ emissions by around 3 %.

During the first six months of this year, mineral oil consumption sank by just under 3 % in total. With a 12 % slump in sales, consumption of light heating oil dropped the most significantly. The decline in the various fuels amounted to between 1 and 4 %. The main reason for this development may have been the increase in prices.

Natural gas consumption increased by just under 3 % in comparison to the first half of the previous year. As a result of the cooler temperatures, consumption increased significantly in February and March, whereas consumption in the second quarter was considerably lower than the previous year.

The consumption of coal decreased significantly and was more than 14 % lower than the previous year due to the fact that less coal was used in power stations to generate electricity and heat. The use of coke and coal in the steel industry also declined.

In the first six months of the year, lignite consumption also dropped by around 3 %, as it was used less frequently to generate electricity.

Nuclear energy was used to generate around 9 % more electricity in the first half of the year compared with the previous year. In 2017, a surge of revisions resulted in a significant reduction in electricity generation.

Renewable energies’ contribution to overall energy consumption in the first half of 2018 rose by more than 4 %. All types of renewable energy contributed to this development. Wind power increased by 15 % and biomass by 1 %. Solar energy also increased by 8 % and the contribution made by hydroelectric power rose by 9 %. (AG Energiebilanzen/Si.)

Energy consumption in Germany increased by 1.6 % in the first six months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. A total of 6,821 PJ or 232.6 mt of coal equivalent (SKE) were consumed in the first half of the year. The increase in consumption has been attributed to the cooler weather conditions at the beginning of the year, the 2016 leap day, continued economic growth and population increase. According to provisional calculations by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen), the increase was attenuated by additional energy-efficient improvements. Increases in oil and natural gas consumption and in renewable energies were accompanied by a decline in coal, lignite and nuclear power consumption (Figure 1).

Mineral oil consumption increased by around 4 % in total in the first half of the year. Diesel fuel and petrol consumption were up by 8 % and just under 1 % respectively and consumption of aviation fuel rose by just under 4 %. Sales of light heating oil grew by 9 % compared with the first six months of the previous year.

Natural gas consumption increased by just under 7 %. This impressive rate of growth was caused mainly by the increased use in electricity production and the cooler weather conditions in January, March and April. Industrial consumption of natural gas was roughly the same as the previous year.

Consumption of coal in the first half of 2016 was just under 2 % lower than in the same period the previous year. Although its use in electricity production fell by roughly 3 % in favour of renewable energies, consumption in the steel industry remained virtually unchanged. Consumption of lignite fell by 1.6 % compared with the first six months of the previous year. Electricity produced from lignite abated by a similar magnitude as a result of reduced power station availability.

Nuclear energy saw a decline of around 15 %. Renewable energies’ contribution to overall energy consumption in the first half of 2016 rose by 2.8 %. Wind energy increased by 8 %, whereas solar energy registered a decline of 4 %. Biomass saw an increase of 2 %. (AGEB/Si)