AG Energiebilanzen presents annual estimate for 2025
Primary energy consumption in Germany is very likely to stagnate or even fall slightly in 2025. In its latest annual estimate, the Working Group on Energy Balances (AG Energiebilanzen) anticipates a decline in consumption of around 0.1% to 10,553 PJ or 360.1 Mtce compared with the previous year. This corresponds to a value of 2,931 TWh and is 26.6% below the 2008 baseline for the energy efficiency targets to be achieved by 2030.
The estimates presented by AG Energiebilanzen at the end of each year are generally highly accurate. Only exceptional weather conditions in the last weeks of the year can have a greater impact on the development.
The cooler weather compared to the previous year increased consumption in the space heating-dependent part of the energy supply. The months of February, March and October, which require intensive heating, were noticeably colder than the same months of the previous year, meaning that the weather had a consumption-increasing effect. Without the consumption-increasing influence of the cooler weather, energy consumption in Germany would have fallen by around 1.2% according to calculations by AG Energiebilanzen.
The slightly positive economic development probably had only a minor impact on the development of energy consumption, as production in energy-intensive industries was significantly reduced.
The fall in consumer prices for fuel and heating oil and the slight decline in natural gas prices may have had an upward effect on consumption. Overall, according to AG Energiebilanzen, the factors reducing consumption had a stronger influence on the development of total energy consumption in 2025 than the factors increasing consumption.
Consumption of mineral oil fell by a total of 2.2% to 3,767 PJ (128.5 Mtce) in 2025. The decline was due to a more than 3% drop in deliveries of crude petrol to the chemical industry and declines in liquefied petroleum gas and other products. By contrast, petrol consumption rose by just under 1% and diesel fuel consumption by a good 1%. Sales of aviation fuel increased by more than 4% and sales of light heating oil by 3%.
Natural gas consumption recorded an increase of 3.6% in 2025, rising to 2,841 PJ (96.6 Mtce). The consumption level thus remains well below the ten-year average. In the space heating market, cooler weather led to a sharp rise in consumption. After a significant increase in the first quarter, industrial demand declined again over the course of the year. Unfavourable weather conditions for wind power generation from January to April led to increased use of gas-fired power plants and caused electricity generation from natural gas to rise by a good 4%. District heating generation from natural gas increased by almost 8%.
Hard coal consumption fell by a total of just over 2% to 754 PJ (25.7 Mtce) in 2025. Although the use of hard coal in power stations for electricity generation increased by around 10%, sales to the iron and steel industry fell by around 9%.
Consumption of lignite fell by more than 6% to 756 PJ (25.8 Mtce) in 2025. Domestic production declined by just under 7%. Deliveries to public power supply power stations fell by around 6%. The operation of the remaining lignite-fired power plants in 2025 was once again characterised by a high degree of flexibility.
In 2025, 18.3 billion kWh (66 PJ) more electricity was imported from abroad than was exported from Germany. Exports rose by a good 6%, while imports fell by 3% compared with the previous year. This meant that Germany remained a net importer of electricity in 2025, albeit at a lower level than in 2024. Import surpluses are a sign of a functioning European internal market. Higher electricity imports do not mean dependence on other European countries, nor do they indicate domestic shortages.
The contribution of renewable energies increased by a total of 3.6% to 2,170 PJ (74.0 Mtce) in 2025. The colder weather led to an increase in the consumption of renewable energies in the heating market. Electricity generation from renewable energies increased by a total of 0.9%. The increase is exclusively attributable to the rise in solar power production by more than 18%. By contrast, electricity generation from wind power fell by more than 4% and that from hydroelectric power plants by more than 24% compared with the previous year.
Renewable energies and natural gas were able to expand their shares in the national energy mix in the past year. The share of natural gas rose to 26.9% (previous year: 26.0%). Renewables achieved a share of 20.6% (previous year: 19.8%). Mineral oil lost ground slightly and covered a total of 35.7% (previous year: 36.5%) of energy consumption in Germany in 2025. Hard coal and lignite once again lost market share, each falling to around 7%.
According to estimates by AG Energiebilanzen 2025, structural changes in energy consumption and stagnating to slightly falling consumption will lead to a reduction in energy-related COâ‚‚ emissions of around 6 Mt. This corresponds to a reduction of more than 1% compared to the previous year. (AGEB/MRG)
